{"id":2885,"date":"2019-04-26T17:25:05","date_gmt":"2019-04-26T15:25:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/websites.fraunhofer.de\/ise-blog-innovation4e\/?p=2885"},"modified":"2019-04-26T17:30:26","modified_gmt":"2019-04-26T15:30:26","slug":"digital-tool-for-the-electricity-grid-forecasting-model-to-determine-the-power-output-of-pv-modules","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.innovation4e.de\/en\/2019\/04\/26\/digital-tool-for-the-electricity-grid-forecasting-model-to-determine-the-power-output-of-pv-modules\/","title":{"rendered":"Digital Tool for the Electricity Grid: Forecasting Model to Determine the Power Output of PV Modules"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The cover of the Fraunhofer ISE\u2019s newly released annual report<\/a> shows a satellite image of a city with various differently colored circles. What does that all mean? Looking closer, one recognizes the City of Freiburg, yet what are the circles for? To find that out, we spoke with Dr. Sven Killinger, researcher in the Department of Smart Grids at Fraunhofer ISE.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Innovation4E:
Mr Killinger, the cover motif was created as part of a research project in which you were involved. Can you tell us what the project was about?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sven Killinger:
The project was carried out with the transition system operator TransnetBW and thematically accompanied my dissertation<\/a> work. The project objective was to develop a upscaling method using geographic information and actual PV installations in order to improve predictions of power output.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Why do we need projections or forecasts of PV power output?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Grid operators have continual measurement data from only a small amount of the 1.7 million PV systems in Germany. Especially in the future energy system, the interaction between singular technologies becomes complex as the coupling of the electricity, heat, and mobility sectors comes into play. Then, a detailed overview of energy supply and demand becomes increasingly important. With advanced forecasting methods to determine the generated PV power, we can support grid operators by providing them a monitoring and control tool for secure grid operations management. With our approach, the available measurement values can be used to accurately estimate the PV power of all systems. Such exact forecasts are also extremely important for the commercial marketing on the electricity exchange.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Freiburg and the Region of Breisgau-Hochschwarzwald are Fraunhofer ISE\u2019s home turf. Is that why you chose this area as a test location?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The grid territory lies in the region of our project partner Baden-W\u00fcrttemberg, and we favored a test location within the state. We chose Freiburg and the surrounding region due to its complex terrain, which is a particular challenge from a scientific point of view. The topography is characterized by a fast-changing terrain between mountains and valleys. This has an influence on the cloud cover and the solar irradiation. Good test results are a strong indication that even better results can be achieved in a more homogeneous region.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The photo shows the City of Freiburg and the locations of the installed PV systems. What do the size and color of the circles mean?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The circle area indicates the amount of installed power of each system. The color represents the tilt angle of the systems, which we determined using a GIS-based approach. The analyses showed that large systems often have a similar, mostly smaller, tilt angle. Small PV systems, mounted on residential buildings, tend to be tilted at a variety of different angles. Since the systems vary in dimension, tilt and orientation, they produce different amounts of electricity in the course of a day.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Video: Brief explanation of the forcasting model<\/h3>\n\n\n\n